Life is like riding a bicycle.

To keep your balance, you must keep moving - Albert Einstein.

Intraday news on Bowleven’s IM5.

News just out on Bowleven’s IM5 which makes for good reading.

The sp was trading at 100p+ based on IM5 success but has for some unknown reason drifted back to the low 70′s.

Black rock have been trading the stock and appear to have been piggy backed by a few other outfits shorting the stock.

One would guess that once these players are finished with manipulating the share price – some reality and valuation basis may return.

With significant resources now added to Bowleven’s folio – one has to wonder how long it will be before someone makes an offer for them.

The company is woefully undervalued at present and a decent re-rating is long overdue.

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BowLeven Plc

22 May 2013

Bowleven plc (‘Bowleven’ or ‘the Company’)

IM-5 – SNH Press Release

IM-5 well, Block MLHP-7, Etinde Permit, Cameroon

Bowleven, the Africa focused oil and gas exploration group traded on AIM, advises that the following release was published today by SNH, the national oil and gas company of Cameroon:

Confirmation of a discovery of Condensate and Gas in IM-5 Well, Etinde Block, Cameroon.

The Executive General Manager (EGM) of the National Hydrocarbons Corporation (SNH),Mr Adolphe MOUDIKI and the Executive Chairman of EurOil Limited (EurOil), Chief TABETANDO, are pleased to inform the national and international community, that a discovery of condensate and gas was confirmed, following the drilling of the IM-5 appraisal/development well, in the offshore Etinde Exclusive Exploration Authorization, located in the Rio Del Rey Basin, Cameroon.

Drilled from September 18, 2012 to March 5, 2013, in a water depth of 56 meters, and attained a total depth of 3,430 meters, the IM-5 appraisal/development well was a success with a discovery of two reservoirs intervals of condensate and gas bearing sands of a total of 95 meters of net pay. The first reservoir interval, situated in the Middle Isongo Formation, logged 25 meters TVD net hydrocarbons, while the second, situated in the Intra Isongo Formation, logged 70 meters TVD net hydrocarbons of which 43 meters were perforated for the production tests.

The production tests performed from March 17, 2013 to April 21, 2013 revealed the following results: – (i) for the Middle Isongo, the maximum daily flow rate of 23 million cubic feet of gas and 3,155 barrels of condensate, and – (ii) for the Intra Isongo, the average daily flow rate of 37 million cubic feet of gas and 4,664 barrels of condensate.

The combined maximum daily flow rates of Middle and Intra Isongo are 60 million cubic feet of gas and 7,819 barrels of condensate. These rates could have been higher using increased tubing size. The condensate is high quality (approximately 43 degree API).

The total volumes of hydrocarbons (P50 in-place) of the IM field are estimated at 155 million barrels of condensates and 1,050 billion cubic feet of gas.

The well is being suspended as a future development/production well. EurOil Limited, as Operator and representative of the Contractor under the Etinde Exclusive Exploration Authorization, submitted to the Ministry in charge of Mines, an application for an Exclusive Exploitation Authorization over the Contract Area, with the aim of putting in production, the present discovery.

Mr Adolphe MOUDIKI, Executive General Manager of SNH commented: “We are pleased with the positive results of the IM-5 well which occurred after those of IE-3 appraisal well drilled in 2010 by the same operator in this area. According to the total volume of these discoveries, which is important, we would like to move quickly to the development phase, with the aim of increasing the level of national oil and gas production. The confirmation of the discovery of the IM-5 well has demonstrated that the Rio del Rey Basin has not spoken its last word in terms of important oil and gas potential. We look forward, with our upstream stakeholders, to invest in the exploration, with the aim of increasing the national oil and gas production and to actively participate in raising the energy supply in Cameroon”.

Chief TABETANDO, EurOil’s Executive Chairman remarked: “We are highly impressed by the IM-5 well which is way beyond our expectations. The well results have confirmed the availability of sufficient gas and condensate reserves to enable us proceed to development. With over 700 bcf now proven (P90 in-place), and further substantial prospectivity, EurOil is ideally positioned to supply the fertilizer plant and potentially other end-users for our gas”.

Kevin HART, Chief Executive Officer for Bowleven plc, EurOil’s holding company said: “We are delighted with the overall results from IM-5 appraisal/development well which have surpassed our expectations. The flow rates that have been achieved on test, demonstrate substantial well deliverability from both the Middle and Intra Isongo intervals, and further strengthen the foundation for the planned development phase of Etinde. Due to the high deliverability of the Intra and Middle Isongo reservoirs, we are confident that we will be able to reduce the number of wells required to supply the planned fertilizer plant.

The IM-5 well has not only delivered a substantial increase in estimated hydrocarbon volumes, but it has also confirmed the presence of liquids rich hydrocarbons at the Isongo Marine field, a significant value driver for development plans on Etinde. In addition to proving that there are more than sufficient gas volumes present on a P90 basis to meet 70 mmscfd dry gas requirements of the fertilizer plant, the IM-5 well has also derisked considerable further prospectivity with significant volumetric upside on the block.

We are continuing to make good progress on the path to development in Cameroon. With the recently announced agreement between Bowleven, Ferrostaal and SNH, of a gas sales term sheet for the proposed fertilizer plant, and a work already underway to update the formal EEAA to integrate the very successful IM-5 well results, the Group remains focused on delivering the planned phased Etinde development and reaching FID, targeted by the end of 2013.

Achieving the first development phase will deliver value to all stakeholders and open up the significant hydrocarbon potential of Etinde Exclusive Exploration Authorization uncovered by our successful exploration activities. We look forward to the work ahead of us in 2013″.

Max Petroleum – Successful Baichonas West Appraisal Well

MXP continues to notch up success across its shallow prospects. The potential to frac the triassic section certainly opens up a new possibility for the Baichonas West field which is quite exciting.

Next up on the drill plan is SAGW-4. MXP will be hoping for similar results to SAGW-3 which was successfully drilled in Feb last year with porosity of 15% to 25%.

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22 May 2013, Max Petroleum Plc

Drilling Update - Successful Baichonas West Appraisal Well

Field Extended into Triassic Section

Max Petroleum Plc, an oil and gas exploration and production company focused on Kazakhstan, is pleased to announce that the BCHW-2 appraisal well in the Baichonas West field has reached a total vertical depth of 1,487 metres, with electric logs indicating a total of seven metres of net pay in Jurassic reservoirs and five metres of net pay in Triassic reservoirs, as well as 93 metres of lower quality Triassic reservoirs that could be potentially productive with hydraulic fracturing over a 170 metre gross interval.

The seven metres of net pay in the Jurassic comprises two zones, including an upper interval at vertical depths between 1,106 to 1,116 metres and a lower interval at depths between 1,187 to 1,201 metres. The lower interval correlates with pays seen in the BCHW-1 well, while the upper zone is a new reservoir not previously encountered. Reservoir quality in the Jurassic is excellent with porosity ranging from 15 to 27%.

The Triassic section, which extends from vertical depths of 1,210 to 1,380 metres, is largely composed of tight sandstones, all of which appear to be charged with hydrocarbons. Electric logs indicate five metres of these sands can be considered net pay having porosity of 15% or greater, which is the standard porosity cut-off the Company has used historically for Triassic reservoirs. An additional 33 metres of reservoirs have porosities ranging between 8% and 15%, with a further 60 metres of additional tight sandstone reservoirs with porosities below 8%. The entire 170 metre hydrocarbon-charged Triassic section is a candidate for hydraulic fracture stimulation and therefore will be included in the testing programme for the well.

Production casing has been run in the well and testing will begin as soon as regulatory approvals are received. The Zhanros ZJ30 Rig will now move to drill the SAGW-4 well, an important appraisal well in the Sagiz West Field, located four km south of the nearest producing well in the field.

2013 Hotlist Results – Week 20

Week 20 of 2013

More bumper gains for the large caps and more records smashed as the markets soar higher and higher. The sell in May mantra has clearly been out of touch in 2013 as the major indices continue to pile on the gains. Growth stories dominated the week as BoE cited better times ahead. The French were not as bullish as they dipped their toes below the recession level for a second time.

It’s still not pretty out there and the major debt issues that have plagued the markets for the last 4 years are still very much evident. But in true market fashion – lets party anyway? Things can only get better right? Meanwhile – the resource sector continues to get battered as if in a different reality time zone. One where all of the above debt issues are all very relevant and real. A major concern apparently?

One has to assume as growth rates pick up in the future so will the demand for resource/commodities. If the markets are supposed to be forward looking – then you’d expect some reasoned rallying across the sector by now. So which is it? Is optimism over growth driving the large caps or is the free QE3 cash just getting invested in apparent low risk sectors only?

The Dow closed week 20 up 235pts at 15354. The FTSE 100 added 98pts to close the week at 6723. That’s over 300pts gained on the FTSE for the month of May.

A virtual portfolio has been set up using the 2012 final trading day close figures as a starting point and £1000 has been invested in each stock. This does not include buying fees or stamp duty and is purely intended to be used as a benchmark or summary for each week. One newspaper top ten picks for 2013 has been included to help monitor/compare against. A pi ‘polled’ top picks list (from LSE bulletin boards) has been included this year.

Week 20 stock picks summary:

It’s pretty much as you were. Large caps booming ahead and small caps looking like the kid picked last for a game of park football.

Poor management decisions from the BOD’s at Antrim account for almost 76% of thesharehub’s hotlist decline. No high impact exploration or failed appraisals can be blamed. Just an inept management team who have undelivered for the last 3 years now yet all of those involved continue to take handsome salaries. Antrim really ought to be put up for sale now to realise the best shareholder value. At double the 8p per share (16p offer) a buyer could gain 3mmboe in reserves, 1000bopd (potentially rising to 1500bopd levels after workovers) huge tax credit breaks, licence block interest in hot demand areas like Ireland and Tanzania and debt free (apart from oil swap deal). Not bad for just £36mln. Of course – it would mean that the BoD’s are out of a job and i’m not sure a new job would be easy to find after their performances. So perhaps a sale of the business is not aligned with director interests at this time? Or ever in the future? It’s probably time for the largest shareholder (18% interest) to make some changes.

Elsewhere across the stock picks – Gulf Keystone stands out as a stock that looks ripe for the speculation rumour mill. The Court Case could finally end soon with a judgement expected as early as June. News emerged over the weekend that ‘Blackrobe’ the hedge fund 3rd party litigation player has decided to ‘fold’ and dissolve the business due to a lack of funding. Mmm – timing certainly looks a bit apt. Should GKP win the CC and wish to counter sue on some matters – Blackrobe and those behind the business will in theory be safe from the clutches of the law. Could this be a hint that the panto like Court case is about to end?

The independent continues to soar and whilst it is clear QE3 is flushing its way through the larger caps, I still wonder why on earth Thomas Cook has almost 3 bagged. The travel industry is changing fast and companies like Thomas Cook have been slow to change with it. As poor old Nokia discovered, it’s the innovators that pick up the mantle and run with it leaving the previous sector leaders looking like great grandma’s. Plenty of wisdom but just not able enough to compete anymore.

But in a market that is disconnected from reality – reasoned debate is becoming hard to find.

Current standings / Week 20 Results

1. The Independent 2013 +39.55% (weekly gain of 6.82%)
2. TheShareHub’s 2013 B-List +10.66% (weekly gain of 4.74%)
3. The LSE BB List 2013 -10.76% (weekly loss of 2.78%)
4. TheShareHub’s 2013 Hotlist -11.13% (weekly gain of 0.01%)

Click on Portfolio image to enlarge Independent week 20 sharehub b-list week 20 lse bb polled pick week 20 sharehub hotlist week 20

Bowleven oversold in casino market

The market will eat itself. Chewing on its nose despite its face – it may well be on the verge of no return when it comes to the small caps / resource sector.

The AIM index and resource stocks in particular are now so disconnected with any sensible valuation model that they may as well be greyhounds at a dog track. Investors are leaving AIM in their droves and if it doesn’t concern the markets – don’t be surprised. With QE3 serving up lobster each day – most big II’s couldn’t give a prawn for the higher risk assets. They are happy pumping their money into loss making companies like Thomas Cook! If ever there was a ‘woolworths’ in the making – then Thomas Cook is it.

But lets not digress too much into the quagmire that market has become. It’s pointless having a reasoned argument when there is no interest in reasoning at all at present.

One company that has had a terrific 2013 based on operations is Bowleven. The IM-5 drill has been a major success and exceeded everyones expectations. Blown away and transformational are just a few phrases that best describe their recent success.

Yet here we are in casino land where traders, hedge funds, shorters you name ‘em are all tinkering with various positions in an effort to gain a return on a short term basis. Net result is a share price that is lower than before BLVN’s hot exploration success on IM-5. It’s madness. And as mentioned a while ago – the markets going to shoot itself in the foot if it is not careful. When QE3 dries up, they’ll need the small caps and higher risk growth sectors to gain their bonus targets as the larger caps suffer the overbought hangover that comes with free QE cash. The problem is… the little olde pi who lubricates their end of year bonuses will not be there to help them. They’ll be sticking their cash into property or premium bonds!

One person that should be getting a tad upset with the markets casino antics of late is of course George Osborne. His April 2014 stamp duty free gift on AIM/LSE shares was supposed to be a big vote winner prior to elections. AIM is likely to be a ghost town by then if things continue as they are and that doesn’t bode well for the city, market or Mr Osborne.

A second half rally in 2013 would be the least Mr market could do and if he’s sensible he’ll get on with it sooner rather than later.

As for Bowleven – Cenkos had a good meeting with management yesterday. Well worth a read.

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From Cenkos

BOWLEVEN (BLVN LN 68.75p £203m)

We hosted a lunch for Bowleven management yesterday. In the light of the share price falling back over 30% from March highs with no negative newsflow it was reassuring to hear the management reiterate the positive case and dismiss some of the rumours that have been circulating, regarding, for example a pending equity raise or problems with the Petrofac relationship as funding partner.

A year ago the company set out a focused route map to value delivery which it has executed faultlessly:

1. Find a gas buyer in Cameroon – Ferrostaal’s gas sales agreement for their planned fertiliser plant has heads of terms agreed and the pricing document is due to be signed in Yaounde next week.

2. Find a funding partner – Petrofac are contracted to commence funding once FID is reached in 6 or 7 months time, the estimated NPV cost of the PFC deal with Bowleven is estimated at c.20% of project value compared to an estimated 50% for a conventional farm-in.

3. Drill IM-5 in Block 7 to confirm commerciality – this well has proved a blockbuster with fantastic flow rates and a mean estimate of 184m barrels of condensate in place, BLVN estimate that at $80 oil each barrel is worth c.$10 to them, so with recovery rates likely to be c.65% the liquids in the IM structure alone are worth c.£800m to BLVN, or 4x to current market cap.

Management also revealed yesterday that Vitol has sold their farm0-in stake of 25% to New Age for a mixture of cash and shares in a deal agreed and priced before IM-5 was drilled…the price is undisclosed but BLVN’s preemption rights mean they have seen the price and it values the Etinde permit at substantially more than the current mkt cap.

Petrofac are excited by the prospect of gas reinjection as a stand-alone project enabling early first production and it is likely that the next well will be an appraisal designed to prove this concept but BLVN will not be coming to the market to fund this.

BLVN is actively engaged in farm-out talks for the 25% they are allowed to farm-out under the PFC deal. The seismic of the area around IM-5 suggests there are a number of analogues to the highly successful Intra Isongo to explore. The flow rate and reservoir characteristics of IM suggest that development will be substantially cheaper (less wells) than originally estimated. The Bomono permit farm-out is continuing and they expect news of a deal within 1-2 months.

CONCLUSION:

The shares are priced at a level disconnected from any sensible interpretation. Even cautious commentators see value in the company on a heavily risked basis to c.100p but if one believes that the company can keep on delivering to plan then they are multiples of the current share price too cheap. A buyers strike in E&P, false rumours and some forced selling have led to the current weakness but if the market does not recognise the value soon we think the industry will. More detail on request.

Tethys Petroleum Limited: Protocol of Intent Signed in Uzbekistan

Tethys continues to make great progress across all their assets. 1st quarter results out today also showed an increase in production numbers. While most investors are awaiting the Tajikistan farm out agreement between CNOC, Total and TPL to be approved by the Tajik gov - Uzbekistan is easily overlooked.

TPL is quietly going about its business and striking deals with majors along the way suggests they punch well above their weight.

Certainly bodes well for future licencing rounds and opportunities in these frontier largely untapped regions.

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TSX, LSE SYMBOL: TPL

May 16, 2013

Tethys Petroleum Limited: Protocol of Intent Signed in Uzbekistan

TASHKENT, UZBEKISTAN–(Marketwired – May 16, 2013) – Tethys Petroleum Limited (“Tethys” or the “Company”)

(TSX:TPL)(LSE:TPL) today announced that it has signed a Protocol of Intent (“POI”) with the Uzbek State oil and gas

company, National Holding Company “Uzbekneftegaz” (“UNG”) for exploration work on the Bayterek block in the North Ustyurt Basin of Northern Uzbekistan.

The POI for the Bayterek Investment Block follows on from the previous MOU and “Agreement on basic principles of the Exploration Agreement” between UNG and TPL. TPL and the Institute of Geology and Exploration of Oil and Gas Fields of UNG have jointly developed an Exploration Programme for the Block.

Tethys and UNG intend to execute an Exploration Agreement in accordance with the legislation of the Republic of Uzbekistan, and upon approval of the Exploration Program by the Government of the Republic of Uzbekistan both parties intend to complete negotiations, and will seek issuance of an appropriate Decree of the Government of Uzbekistan, within one calendar year.

Dr. David Robson, Executive Chairman and President of Tethys, commented: “The signing of the Protocol of Intent is a significant step forward with our partners Uzbekneftegaz to work together on exploring the North – West of Uzbekistan.

We believe this area has great exploration potential and we look forward to using our working knowledge of the area to best exploit this attractive block.”

Tethys is focused on oil and gas exploration and production activities in Central Asia with activities currently in the Republics of Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. This highly prolific oil and gas area is rapidly developing and Tethys believes that significant potential exists in both exploration and in discovered deposits.

MXP boosts cash flow with near doubling of production from Asanketken Field

Good news from MXP today and certainly not to be underestimated. The impact is immediate in terms of boosting cash flow from production. The numbers effectively double the production output on ZM field which is clearly some upgrade.

Kazakhstan has a reputation for being red taped up to the eye balls. Moving production from test status to full export status can take months/years. MXP plans to move Asanketken to full field development status during 2014 which will see the price per barrel gained rise significantly.

After a difficult 2012 for MXP which saw them over stretch themselves on the problematic and very expensive NUR-1 deep exploration drill – the company is getting back to what it does best. The next few months will see MXP drill a well almost every 2 to 3 weeks as it seeks to bolster production from the shallow wells. Each well costs circa $100k per day and takes around 10 days to complete.

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15 May 2013, Max Petroleum Plc

Regulatory Update - Approval of Licence Extension

Asanketken Field on Trial Production

15 May 2013

Max Petroleum Plc, an oil and gas exploration and production company focused on Kazakhstan, is pleased to announce that it has received final regulatory approval of a two-year extension of the exploration period of the Company’s Blocks A&E Licence by the Ministry of Oil & Gas of the Republic of Kazakhstan (the “Appraisal Extension”).

The Company is placing the four wells in the Asanketken Field onto trial production and returning the BCHW-1 well in the Baichonas Field to test production, effective immediately. As a result, the Company expects its current production of approximately 2,200 barrels of oil per day (“bopd”) from the Zhana Makat Field to increase by a minimum of 2,000 bopd.

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