Previous heads up on Nautical was given on Dec 21st. Sp was 380p.
Today, the stock has been moving towards the big test barrier at £4. Sp currently 397p. With Varadero drill now very much under way and due to TD around the 6th or 7th Jan, there’s clearly some speculative buyers getting stock in ahead of the results. Varadero is a lower CoS drill than the previous successful Catcher strike made this summer. If they fail to hit the good stuff in Varadero – then they head off back to Catcher area where the CoS is very high indeed. Some have suggested that it’s a ‘banker’ but I would always be cautious as there’s no such thing as ‘dead certs’.
The second drill will follow immediately after Varadero and should give the stock decent support. If Varadero is a success, then it could raise the oip estimates for the entire area which would be very meaningful indeed. Other partners include Premier Oil and Encore Oil. At £4 range NPE looks good value especially when you account for the recent Kraken discovery which is due an update on OIP. Any followers of XEL will know the significance of heavy oil and Kraken is a cracking licence.
1.comparing encore and nautical , shoudn’t it be 1 to 4 in value
so if encore is 130p then nautical should be 520p , so either encore is over-
valued or nautical undervalued
2.i value nautical at about 320p :that is their cash+ 6% mariner+ kraken+
catcher. that leaves 80p for catcher “hopefulls” and all other prospects
3.i find it extremely diffecult how to value these prospects( incl catchers)
how do you and other investors do this
do you have a value-model or some rule of tumb?