Providence Resources is another great stock performer for 2012. This stock has 3 bagged and is heading towards 4 bagger status. Unfortunately, it is not in thesharehub’s hotlist. Instead San Leon were chosen due to the diversity in the assets. However, in early 2012, San Leon Management decided to ‘derisk’ on Barryroe ahead of the drill results. They swapped a 30% share of Barryroe for back payments on costs and a lifetime net profit interest of 4.5%. Whilst that deal might have looked marvellous on a poor Barryroe result – it now clearly looks like a major company maker opportunity gone down the drain. Lets not be shy here… San Leon management effectively gave away 30% of a p50 1bln barrel oil discovery. For a company with a market cap of just £113mln – that’s a major miss.
But hindsight is a wonderful thing and management will have to take some comfort in the 4.5% net profit interest. Using a 30% recovery factor – San Leon could be raking in around $600mln in revenue over the lifetime of the Barryroe licence at no cost to themselves.
The market doesn’t appear to be taking much note at present of San Leon’s minor net profit interest. They might do so once PVR secure a farm out deal which no doubt they will.
July 25th 2012
BARRYROE - OIL IN PLACE RESOURCE UPDATE
|RESERVOIR INTERVAL||P50 (MMBO)||P10 (MMBO)|
- FURTHER UPSIDE POTENTIAL IN HYDROCARBON BEARING LOWER WEALDEN AND PURBECKIAN SANDS AS WELL AS IN DEEPER UPPER JURASSIC EXPLORATION OBJECTIVES
Providence Resources P.l.c., (“Providence”) the Irish oil and gas exploration and production company, whose shares are quoted in London (AIM) and Dublin (ESM), is pleased to provide a resource update on the Barryroe oil field in the North Celtic Sea Basin, offshore Ireland. Providence (80%) operates Barryroe on behalf of its partner Lansdowne Oil and Gas plc (20%). The area is located in Standard Exploration Licence (SEL) 1/11, lies in c. 100 metre water depth and is c. 50 kilometres off the south coast of Ireland.
Following the successful drilling and testing of the Barryroe 48/24-10z well in March 2012, Providence has now completed a series of comprehensive post-well studies in order to update the in-place volumetric resource estimate for the Barryroe discovery contained within Standard Exploration Licence (SEL) 1/11. This assessment has incorporated the data from all 6 wells drilled on Barryroe, together with the recently acquired/processed 3D seismic data, existing 2D seismic data, as well as utilizing other regional data.
This analysis demonstrates that the Barryroe trap at Base Wealden level is situated in the hanging-wall side of an inverted major intra-basinal growth-fault system and covers an area of several hundred square kilometres. The crest of the structure is located at c. 6,400 ft TVDSS with a deepest logged hydrocarbons at c. 7,300 ft TVDSS with no evidence of an oil-water contact. Reservoir fluid data from the recent 48/24-10z well indicate that there is unlikely to be any primary gas cap present at the crest of the structure in the Basal Wealden Sands.
UPDATED STOIIP – MIDDLE AND BASAL WEALDEN
The lowest closing contour (P10) for the Barryroe structure at Basal Wealden reservoir level is mapped at c. 7,500 ft TVDSS, just c. 200 ft down-dip from existing well control. A mid-case (P50) Basal Wealden average net sand thickness of just 23 ft has been assumed across the structure for volumetric purposes and, when combined with well petrophysical parameters, results in an in-place P50 of 756 MMBO and P10 of 906 MMBO. The large increase in Basal Wealden resources versus the previous estimate is based on the ability to use the new high quality 3D seismic data to image and extend the Basal Wealden sand play across the entire mapped Barryroe structure. The resource figures for the Middle Wealden (P50 of 287 MMBO and P10 of 706 MMBO) have not been revised and remain as per the previous RPS Energy audit.
ADDITIONAL LOWER WEALDEN & PURBECKIAN RESOURCE POTENTIAL
As in the recent 48/24-10z well, all of the previous Barryroe wells, which were drilled through the Lower Wealden, encountered a thick c. 1,000 ft section of inter-bedded sands and shales with all sands logged as hydrocarbon bearing. In the eastern part of Barryroe, these sands are generally thin in nature however they thicken considerably to the west as evidenced by the previous Esso-operated 48/23-1 well. That well, which logged c. 120 ft of stacked Lower Wealden hydrocarbon bearing sands had average porosities of 16% and hydrocarbon saturations of 70%. A failed well test in 1976 over this interval is now interpreted by the partners to be due to mechanical failure. The 48/23-1 well also encountered a c. 70 ft logged hydrocarbon bearing sand within the Purbeckian lacustrine shales underlying the Basal Wealden, which was not tested. Deeper exploration potential has also been identified under Barryroe at Upper Jurassic level, which is as yet undrilled. Mapping confirms the Barryroe closure persists to Base Cretaceous level and the overpressured shales of the Purbeckian should provide an effective seal for any potential accumulation.
Providence has commenced mapping of these newly prospective zones and plans to provide an additional resource update once this work has been completed.
Speaking today, Tony O’Reilly, Chief Executive of Providence said,
“We are delighted to be in a position to provide such a significant increase in the Barryroe oil in place resources. The subsurface mapping and geological modeling results have confirmed that the Barryroe structure covers a very large area, and comprises four distinct hydrocarbon bearing reservoir zones. Interestingly, our most recent well was situated c. 900 ft down-dip from the structural crest and still encountered oil to the base of the primary Basal Wealden Sand. In fact, the lack of any logged water bearing reservoir intervals in the lower c. 1,500 ft of our recent 48/24-10z attests to the resource potential within the Barryroe structure and strongly suggests that there may also be material hydrocarbon potential at deeper reservoir intervals within the structure. It is clear from these studies that Barryroe is a substantial oil accumulation across multiple stacked horizons with much running room for further resource growth.”