Week 43 of 2012
An interesting week as both the US and UK surprised with some very strong growth figures. The market really wasn’t in the mood to get the trumpets out as it maintains its ghoulish antics in October.
In the US a 2% growth rate would normally have had the bears dashing for cover. But the truth is, whilst the numbers are welcome, they are merely average for the last 3 years. The economy is treading water.
However, all is not the same. The Fed’s twist program has clearly helped housing and as US corporate earnings head down, consumer spending and housing heads up. A change of the old guard perhaps, but for the US to avoid the much hyped ‘fiscal cliff’ – they’ll need both elements powering on all four cylinders..
With Congress soon to hit the centre stage over tax cuts and an election result just over a week away – only a decisive result along with firm decisions by law makers will seemingly avoid the US economy heading back into recession.
But that’s not a crisis in the making as many would suggest – it’s potentially a minor blip to recovery as seen by the UK. GDP figures released a few days ago show a quarterly growth rate of 1% – it’s largest for many years.
Bank of England’s deputy governor (curiously but genuinely named Mr Bean) said there were “signs of progress” from the eurozone and banking crises and inflation should be lower.
All in all – signs of growth are there but signs of sustained growth are hard to see at present.
Key Indices summary – The DOW closed week 43 down 237pts at 13107. The FTSE 100 finished virtually where it did 2 weeks ago at 5807.
A virtual portfolio has been set up using the 2011 final trading day close figures as a starting point and £1000 has been invested in each stock. This does not include buying fees or stamp duty and is purely intended to be used as a benchmark or summary for each week. 2 newspaper top tens for 2012 have been included to help monitor/compare against.
Week 43 stock picks summary:
Not much to report as equities continue to trade like casino chips alongside irratic key indices like the DOW and FTSE. Both have recently created the desired ‘churn’ and volatility that the market likes best – The Independent’s stock picks rule the roost with the others are not showing any signs of mounting an attack at present.
9 weeks left to year end.
Current standings / Week 43 Results
1. The Independent 2012 +45.65% (weekly loss of 3.43%)
2. The ‘B’ List 2012 +10.62% (weekly loss of 1.53%)
3. Tempus Times 2012 +9.74% (weekly loss of 0.10%)
4. The 2012 Hotlist -1.51% (weekly loss of 1.70%)
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