Welcome to TheShareHub.
A designated information Hub for private investors to share research, views and tips on Shares/Equities.
Those familiar with posts on the investor interactive BB’s will be acutely aware that it’s hard to find one particular ‘relevant’ spot to post on and invariably those posts get knocked down the queue system pretty quick indeed on over populated BB’s. The ShareHub aims to deliver a simple and easy access Hub for all equity information. The site is very much in its embryonic stages and will, in time, develop with added features, and useful links etc
The key Features include the Hotlist, a list of ten stocks picked as star performers, plus the more spontaneous alert section ‘Heads up’ which brings into focus stocks that are moving due to TA, News or Rumour. These often move fast and the ‘Heads up’ is an alert to investors that ‘something’ could be happening. Sometimes right and sometimes wrong – the ‘Heads up’ section is not one to be missed in the hunt for the Equity holy grail – ‘Multibaggers’.
The CoffeeHouse section is a general discussion area borrowing its name from the 1690′s when trade in shares was centred around the City’s Change Alley in two coffee shops: Garraway’s and Jonathan’s signaling the beginning of the London Stock Exchange. We are a far cry from those candle lit days – but the gossip and whispers are still the same!
In time a “Tutorial” area will be added aimed at providing novice investors with links on improving and learning about investing in Equities – Jargon free where ever possible.
There is nothing more pleasing than reading investor’s/posters’ comments who have benefited and profited from previous ‘heads up’ and ‘tips’. Many have had their lives transformed through investing success – it’s great to witness and be a part of.
The Stock market is heavily weighted in favour of the institutions and the private investor has much to gain by sticking together and sharing information. Combined, the private investor is a force to rival any.
We hope you enjoy the site and look forward to adding more content/services in the future.
NOTE: The value of your investments can go down as well as up. You may not get back all the funds you invest. Please read the Risk Warning featured on the right hand sidebar.
Hi hub. I hope you will also give advice when to sell your stock ideas. Of course, we should all make our own decisions but it would be nice to know
Hi Monty,
Unfortunately I am not regulated by the FSA so cannot give any ‘advice’. I can only give my views on stocks and these will vary from positive to negative depending on the businesses progress etc. I will not however be offering any sell or buy advice i’m afraid. That’s down to each investor to make his/her decision and requires the usual risk assessment and research that you would attribute to buying a house or any other large capital outlay. Sorry to be perfunctory – but rules and rules!
Hub,
You mentioned that you do not short stocks at all. Without going into detail, can I ask if you still managed to make returns during the crash in late 2007 and 2008? As you so easy profits have been available during the last 2 years during one of the biggest bull runs in history, however I would be interested to know how you approach a bear market i.e. cash in the bank so there is no need to sell, money on the side for ‘averaging down’, switching to utilities?
Keep up the good work.
Steve
Hi Steve,
In my experience, it’s often too late for many investors by the time the word ‘bear’ market has become common place. The market has a habit of shielding the truth or ignoring it. Northern rock in 2007 ring any bells? It took almost 12 months before the real storm kicked in aka Lehmans.
I use a simple a barometer called ‘value’ to get me through the recession and rebounds. When I look around and I see so many stocks that offer great value based on risk vs reward – I know i’m in a bullish market with legs. When I look around and see a small amount of ‘value’ stocks, then I know i’m in a market that might be running out of steam.
Your question is a difficult one but the common sense answer would be to convert equity holdings to cash and then wait patiently for re-entry points. Leave the shorting to the spreadbetters and traders. In Feb/March 2009, I was buying property stocks that were priced for failure. Qed at 8p stands out as one highlight. I cannot believe to this day that I was able to buy that stock at that price. 6 months later and it was trading at 240p without splits or capital raising. It could have gone horribly wrong but ‘buy when others are fearful’ certainly rang true in those times. Ironically, Buffet confessed himself to have started his buying in Nov / Dec 2008 and in some cases even earlier.
E&P stocks which are oil based can often present opportunities in bear markets as they are not cyclical or economically driven. Instead – they tend to be driven by the oil price and their ensuing discovery success. Sure, Oil is often battered down in recession periods so it’s important to keep an eye on that as well. A low oil price can often make smaller explorers prospects nigh impossible to execute on a commercial basis – never mind the typical weak cash/fund raising environments that also occur.
I feel the recovery will be slow over the next few years and as a consequence, see lower rates for sometime now – possibly touching 3% in next couple of years. I think the world banks need more time to recapitalise before eventually transfering the slosh of cash from their balance sheets back to the FEDs and BoE etc from whence it came in an orderly fashion – fingers crossed!
Hub
Great website for which many thanks.
Am a newbie and still learning, Wondered what your strategy is with regards to taking profits. Do you wait until your target is reached or do you take something off the table as gains accrue.
Thanks in advance.
I tend to top slice (take a small amount of profit) if I see a stock getting ahead of itself or I feel I need to derisk. Sometimes – it’s simply about moving some funds around to other opportunities as they arise. In 2010, I sold AST at 5p ranges as I felt it would drop back due to delays on drill program. The funds went into XEL at 40p. AST dropped back to test 3.5p a few months later and XEL tested 120p. By December, XEL had touched 420p+ and AST had recovered to test 9p ranges. So – as you can see, being dynamic and adjusting to other opportunities as they arise can work – but it’s based on my own strategy. I know of other investors that bought more AST stock at 3.5p as they felt it was way oversold. They were rewarded for their risk and confidence in the end. It doesn’t always work out that way. I tend to invest ‘long term’ but that doesn’t mean I switch off ‘long term’. Quite the opposite – I’m always looking for the next opportunity and weighing up my current holdings progress and operational performance. I often get surprised at investors that become impatient and sell up because a stock hasn’t doubled or made 50% etc. The truth is – a 10% gain is a victory in a market whereby interest rates are 0.5%. The last 2 years has spoilt many investors and made a few average ones think they are Warren Buffet. It’s clearly easier to make money in a bull market or recovery than in a bear market/recession. The key is to not become complacent and to invest according to your own risk appetite and strategy and do not over stretch yourself. Don’t go chasing the 10 baggers if it doesn’t suit your risk strategy. As an example, Ithaca Energy topped the Hotlist last year with a 103% rise. It was what I would call a ‘low’ risk stock. I’d place Nautical (npe) in that same boat too and It wouldn’t surprise me to see them deliver a 2 bagger this year. I’ve rambled on a bit too much – so will leave it there! Hope the above helps.
Hub, was wondering if you were still short on Chariot Oil and what you thought could possibly go wrong to cause this to retrace. We are expecting multiple farm ins with the next 7 weeks.
Thanks,
Hi tony,
For the record – I do not ‘short’ stocks. Best leave that to the traders. I personally don’t like ‘shorting’ but understand its merits in terms of market liquidity, CFD’s and spread betting etc.
I can see the attraction in CHAR as the asset potential is there. At just shy of £380mln market cap I’d say that quite a bit is priced in already. The only danger near term/medium term is really down to how much is priced in. Caution is required as i’m sure you would agree. Desire was a classic example of how ‘high hopes’ coupled with ‘high market caps’ can end in tears. There’s nothing certain or guaranteed about Char’s assets and they have no discoveries or production to support the current sp. On the pro’s for it, if high risk vs high reward suits the investor – then Char’s future certainly looks like a decent high risk gamble. Good luck with it.
I am not posting this as I am trying to push Edenville. I have never ever promoted a share on any board, and never will, but I saw it posted on their III bulletin board this morning and wonder what others make if it.
I don’t have an account with CMC but I called them and they confirmed it is correct. As we get closer to 11th February, which they confirmed is the deadline, would it not point to more falls to come?
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“This is one of the reasons for the recent excessive falls in some AIM quoted stocks.
On 21 Jan 11, CMC Markets, one of the world’s leading online CFD providers and financial spread betting companies, has de-listed ALL AIM stocks and all AIM share bets that remain open will be closed out at the closing price on 11th February 2011.
This has been causing some excessive selling in many AIM listed stocks and is worth noting if any of your AIM stocks are being hit by an unexplained sell-off as it could last until 11 Feb 11.
This is worth spreading around any other AIM listed stocks who are currently being affected by an unexplained sell-off that began around 21 Jan and will continue to 11 Feb so that fellow investors are aware of what could be going on with their investment.
This AIM de-listing was mentioned by one of their clients over on ADVFN (on 27 Jan) who must sell his position in GKP by 11 Feb 11.”
Nigel,
I think the CMC fiasco is relevant to a point but they are not the begin and end all of spread betters. Whilst it may have a marginal short term influence – longer term the sp’s of said businesses will progress based on operational performance and not CFD or spread betting positions etc.
Certainly one to be aware of but also not one to hang ‘all’ sp woes upon.
I have been keeping an eye on Edenville Energy (EDL) for some time now. The are currently just over 2p having been down to 0.5p and as high as 2.5p.
They recently announced a coal find at Rukwa and another at Mkomolo in Tanzania. Both are of good thermal quality. It may not be gold or oil but China and India, to name but two, will need a lot more coal in the future and the price has been rising.
They are now changing to a drill that will allow them to go deeper and are also extending their surveying. There is no resource estimate yet.
Have you come across them in your research Hub, and if so do you have any views please?
I’m aware of EDL but prefer BHR as a coal play. Don’t underestimate the value of Coal. Coal is expected to be a big play in 2011 especially after the recent Aussie floods.
Hello Hub, Great site and use it more and more for your Heads up, spending less time reading through lots of posts on iii which suits me fine. I just wondered if you had any views on seasonality. As in we have a down push on oil in January and then a push up again in Feb. Gold and silver normally start to fall late Feb but have started early this year, does any of this affect your trading strategy for exit or entry points in any way or do you ignore these matters.
Cheers in advance
Deno
Hi Deno,
I think traders certainly take note of any seasonal trends – but investors tend to look longer term. That said – I largely ignored the ‘sell in may’ market mantra in 2010 and had I followed it – would have made a nice exit and re-entry.
The market is full of historic reference points and every year that passes either breaks one of mirrors another etc. In a nut shell, if you highlight many historic benchmarks or reference points – some will always come in right.
I try and focus on the business / company which I am invested in and view their sensitivity to commodity prices against my growth forecast. It’s important to keep an eye on.
Thanks Hub, i realise that the question was probably a bit silly for long term investing, just wondered what views you had on the subject. I go for long term, but am in a few gold and silver plays which are in very nice profit, but obviously been directly affected by the sell off lately and am very tempted to sell out and buy back in a few months. Still learning lol.
Thanks for the reply
Deno
Hub,
Where can I find your original write up on the 2011 hotlist. Can only find weekly updates? Sorry for the trouble but its nice to remind myself of why I invested. Also, will the list have any future sell or recommended updates if required?
Hi Steve
Go to the 2011 hotlist section on the right hand side under the features.
Then scroll through the posts.
Or click on this quick link… http://thesharehub.com/?p=360
Thanks Hub.
P.S. Great website and I am very grateful to your tips over the last 2 years.
Steve
Hub, the new website is looking great. Having benefited greatly from you posts/tips on III (both financially and through learning) I just wanted to say thanks and keep up the good work.
Whilst I’m here, did you ever run your eye over LON:RMM? I think in could be an interesting copper play in 2011. The Chairman recently bought another 500k shares @ 32.9p and Gartmore have just have taken a 5% holding.
I’d be interested to know your thoughts on them?
Cheers
abso