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2013 Hotlist Results – Week 16

Week 16 of 2013

Another week of tepid action across the major indices. While the blue chips seem to be treading water, the small caps were acting like it was Sept 2008 all over again. It really is astonishing to see such an obvious dual market in place where risk on assets are shunned and safety is sought through the larger caps.

China’s drop in GDP was certainly not pleasant but at 7.7% it is hardly slowing to a halt is it?

Murmurs from europe suggest that interest rate cuts may be on the cards in the near future as the global recovery continues to leave many divided in terms of increased austerity vs growth arguments.

It doesn’t look like QE3 can end anytime soon nor can interest rates increase – that bodes well for equities but the question is, will the smaller caps be invited to the QE3 party. At present, they are firmly outside and on the door step while those inside seem to be lapping up the cash.

The Dow closed week 16 down 117pts at 14548. The FTSE 100 lost 97pts to a close the week at 6287.

A virtual portfolio has been set up using the 2012 final trading day close figures as a starting point and £1000 has been invested in each stock. This does not include buying fees or stamp duty and is purely intended to be used as a benchmark or summary for each week. One newspaper top ten picks for 2013 has been included to help monitor/compare against. A pi ‘polled’ top picks list (from LSE bulletin boards) has been included this year.

Week 16 stock picks summary:

The ‘dual market’ that is in play could not have been portrayed any better by the top picks across the blue chip sectors seen in the independent list and the small caps by the LSE BB polled picks and the Hotlist. Over 25% growth in the first 4 months separates them.

The Independent top picks somehow managed to grow last week – a week that felt a bit like a bloodbath across AIM.

If the markets continue to abuse the small cap sector – then there may not be much left by this time next year. Perhaps Osborne knew this? – Hence his generous stamp duty free offer?

If things do not improve soon – his offer might go completely ignored.

Current standings / Week 16 Results

1. The Independent 2013 +24.53% (weekly gain of 0.87%)
2. TheShareHub’s 2013 B-List +2.52% (weekly loss of 3.37%)
3. The LSE BB List 2013 -1.82% (weekly loss of 4.72%)
4. TheShareHub’s 2013 Hotlist -4.55% (weekly loss of 3.19%)

Click on Portfolio image to enlargeIndependent week 16 thesharehub's b-list week 16 LSE top picks - week 16 thesharehub's Hotlist - week 16

Bowleven updates on IM-5 well, Block MLHP-7, Etinde Permit, Cameroon

A successful DST on the Intra Isongo section of the IM5 well has been completed with very commercial numbers.

The quality of Condensate rich Gas certainly bodes well for the rest of the licence block based on this section of the reservoir.

It’s worth noting that the last DST RNS was followed by a Volumetrics update a week or so later. Bowleven elude to a second volumetric update coming in the future … “With testing complete, volumetrics for the IM field will be updated”. END.

The share price reaction is typically muted and represents more about the current market climate for E&P’s rather than the value of this discovery and the commercial confirmation of the flow rates.

There’s also a few ‘shorts’ in play so those involved may want to keep a lid on any sp rises until they can unwind their positions. Probably ahead of the soon to be released Volumetrics upgrade. As the shorts get closed, the sp should start to reflect more of todays news rather than the trading positions of some hedge fund players.

At sub 100p, Bowleven looks very cheap indeed when compared to most broker targets which are at 200p+.

See Merril’s note below followed by BLVN’s RNS detail.

Merril Lynch Broker Note/comment…

“Secondary target Intra Isongo flows > 10,800 boe/d

We reiterate our BUY recommendation and PO of 215p post todays very positive and final DST (Drill Stem Test) result on the IM-5 well offshore Cameroon. The flow rate, testing a 29m perforated column of the Intra Isongo interval (c. 70m of discovered net pay), revealed an impressive flow rate of 37 mmscf/d of gas (c. 6,140boe/d) and 4,664 boe/d of 43 API condensate; a combined flow rate therefore in excess of 10,800 boe/d. Pressure drawdown on testing was restored comfortably within the planned 72 hour period, hinting at a potentially large lateral extent of the tested interval; a source of future upside optionality for Bowleven.

Combined flow rates from IM-5 testing > 17,800boe/d

Along with the previously disclosed flow rate achieved on the Middle Isongo interval, this takes maximum combined flow rates to over 17,800 boe/d, well in excess of the plateau gas volumes agreed for the proposed fertiliser plant of 70 mmsc/d of dry gas (equivalent to 80mmscf/d wet gas or c. 13,270boe/d). This would indicate that 2 wells flowing at c. 40mmscf/d each could suffice; a very material potential saving on well & infrastructure requirements that are estimated at c. US$600mn gross at this stage, based on a 6 well development concept.

Condensate yield compares favourably to wells nearby

Whilst the condensate: gas ratio (c. 133 bbl/mmscf) was in the lower half of company estimates (c. 100-285 bbl/mmscf) for the Intra Isongo layer, it is important to note that i) the test was only conducted in a relatively narrow 29m section and the ratio is likely to vary over the rest of the 41m section of net pay and ii) compared to other assets in the region (e.g. Marathon’s Alba field offshore EG), the results is still c. 2x the liquid yield achieved in those producing wells.

EEAA approval is the next catalyst; FID targeted for 2H13

The Entinde Exploitation Authorisation Application incorporating the IM-5 well result is currently with the government pending approval, anticipated imminently.

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19 April 2013, Bowleven plc

IM-5 testing update

IM-5 well, Block MLHP-7, Etinde Permit, Cameroon

Bowleven, the Africa focused oil and gas exploration group traded on AIM, is pleased to announce the results of the second test at the IM-5 appraisal/development well drilling offshore Cameroon. A drill stem test (DST) has now been performed on the Intra Isongo reservoir interval and this following the Middle Isongo DST announced on 2 April 2013 completes the successful drilling and testing programme at IM-5.

Highlights

Testing Overview

·    Condensate-rich gas flowed on test from both Middle and Intra Isongo intervals confirming commercial production rates and the significant liquids content of gas.

·    Combined maximum flow rates of 60 mmscfd and 7,819 bcpd (total over 17,800 boepd).

Intra Isongo update

·    Average flow rate of 37 mmscfd and 4,664 bcpd (total over 10,800 boepd) achieved from 29 metres of perforated section out of 70 metres of net pay.

·    High quality condensate (approximately 43 degree API) produced on test.

Testing update

The well, designed to appraise the reservoir and fluid properties of the Middle Isongo and to explore the additional potential of the Intra Isongo, was drilled to a TD of 3,430 metres MD in water depths of around 56 metres.

Further to our update on the 2 April 2013 post completion of the Middle Isongo DST, testing has now been performed on the Intra Isongo interval with the following results:

Intra Isongo update

As previously announced, the well encountered approximately 70 metres of log evaluated net hydrocarbon-bearing pay in the Intra Isongo over a gross interval of approximately 80 metres.

The well has now successfully flow tested condensate-rich gas from a perforated section of 29 metres out of a total of 70 metres of net pay. The interval flowed at an average rate of 37 mmscfd and 4,664 bcpd (total over 10,800 boepd) on a 64/64 inch choke. During the test sequence the interval also flowed at a peak gas rate in excess of 40 mmscfd.  The average rate infers a CGR of 125 bbl/mmscf and measured CGRs of up to 133 bbls/mmscf were achieved on test.  Further significant liquids (including LPGs) can be recovered via secondary processing. Further analysis of test data is required although it is our expectation that optimised Intra Isongo development well locations and completions are likely to lead to production rates well in excess of 40 mmscfd per well.

The Intra Isongo test result combined with the test on the Middle Isongo delivered a maximum flow rate of 60 mmscfd and 7,819 bcpd (total over 17,800 boepd).

Forward plan

The IM-5 drilling and testing programme is now complete and the well will be suspended as a future development/production well. The Atwood Aurora jack-up rig will be released by Bowleven following completion of suspension operations. With testing complete, volumetrics for the IM field will be updated.

Kevin Hart, Chief Executive, said:

“We are delighted with the overall results from the IM-5 well which have surpassed our expectations. The flow rates that have been achieved on test demonstrate substantial well deliverability from both the Middle and Intra Isongo intervals and further strengthen the foundation for the planned phased development of Etinde.  Due to the high deliverability of the Intra and Middle Isongo reservoirs we are confident we will be able to reduce the number of wells required to supply the planned fertiliser plant.

The IM-5 well has not only delivered a substantial increase in estimated hydrocarbon volumes but it has also confirmed the presence of liquids rich hydrocarbons at the Isongo Marine field, a significant value driver for development plans on Etinde.  In addition to proving that there are more than sufficient gas volumes present on a P90 basis to meet the 70 mmscfd dry gas requirements of the fertiliser plant, the IM-5 well has derisked considerable further prospectivity with significant volumetric upside on the block.

We are continuing to make good progress on the path to development in Cameroon. With the recently announced agreement between Bowleven, Ferrostaal and SNH of a gas sales term sheet for the proposed fertiliser plant and work already underway to update the formal EEAA to integrate the very successful IM-5 well results, the Group remains focused on delivering the planned phased Etinde development and reaching FID, targeted by the end of 2013.

Achieving the first development phase will deliver value to all stakeholders and open up the significant hydrocarbon potential of the Etinde Permit uncovered by our successful exploration activities. We look forward to the work ahead of us in 2013. “

Antrim agree farm out of Skellig Block in Porcupine Basin

With Exxon just days away from spudding their first well on Dunquin – it’s no surprise to see Antrim secure a farm out deal as industry interest is high. The deal looks fair and hedges both parties bets. If Antrim had waited until after Exxon’s first well – then they would have run the risk of not gaining a partner. If the Dunquin well comes in a success – then I suspect their 25% will look very attractive indeed for a company with a market cap close to just £23mln. Especially when the £23mln cap doesn’t even value the company based on their current north sea production and circa 3 mmboe in reserves.

The exciting news today is that the partner involved ‘Kosmos’ clearly think there is some cross over with the structures seen in west africa.

This might also explain why Exxon, Eni and Respol farmed in to Providence Dunquin prospect with some speed and verve.

Dunquin could be the beginning of a major upgrade of all irish assets/licences in the surrounding area. Assuming it is a success or shows encouraging signs of a hydrocarbon system.

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April 18, 2013 12.30 gmt

Antrim Energy Inc.: Farmout of Skellig Block in the Porcupine Basin, Offshore Ireland CALGARY, ALBERTA and LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM–(Marketwired – April 18, 2013) - Antrim Energy Inc. (TSX:AEN) (AIM:AEY) (“Antrim” or the “Company”)

Antrim Energy Inc., a Canada-based international exploration and production company, today announced a farmout agreement for its Licensing Option 11/05 (Antrim 100%) in the Porcupine Basin offshore Ireland’s west coast.

Kosmos Energy Ltd. (“Kosmos”) will acquire 75% interest and operatorship in the Licensing Option in exchange for carrying the full costs of a planned 3D seismic programme within the licence area (the “Skellig Block”) and re-imbursement to Antrim of a portion of the exploration costs incurred on the blocks to date. Antrim will retain 25% interest. The transaction is subject to approval of the Department of Communications, Energy and Natural Resources of Ireland (“DCENR”). Kosmos and Antrim expect to apply to DCENR for conversion of the Licensing Option to a Frontier Exploration Licence and approval for the 3D seismic programme as soon as possible. Under the terms of the Licensing Option, a minimum of 25% of the area must be relinquished when converting to a Frontier Exploration Licence.

Antrim acquired the Licensing Option in the 2011 Atlantic Margin Licensing Round. The Licensing Option includes Blocks 44/4, 44/5 (part), 44/9, 44/10, 44/14 and 44/15, an area of 1,409 km2. Antrim has licensed, reprocessed and interpreted 2D seismic data over the blocks and identified a Cretaceous deep sea fan complex similar in seismic character to many of the recent discoveries in the Cretaceous offshore West Africa.

The licence adjacent to the Skellig Block contains the Dunquin North and South prospects, which have been estimated by licence partners Providence Resources (Plc) and Sosina Exploration Ltd. to potentially contain in excess of 1,700 million barrels of oil equivalent recoverable volumes in the form of natural gas and gas condensate in a Cretaceous target. ExxonMobil, operator of the licence, is expected to start drilling an exploration well in April 2013.

Kosmos is an oil and gas exploration and production company that discovered and holds a 24.1% interest in the Jubilee Field offshore Ghana, which currently produces approximately 110,000 barrels of oil per day from the deep sea Cretaceous fan reservoir.

Stephen Greer, President and CEO of Antrim, commented, “Antrim is very pleased to have attracted a partner to this licence, and especially a proven player in the discovery and development of the world class deep sea Cretaceous West African oil fields.”

Gazprom drill bodes well for Tethy’s.

Investors in Tethy’s (TPL) will be excited by the news that Gazprom have at last hit target depth on the deepest well ever drilled on Tajikistan’s soil.

It’s really quite remarkable at the depths achieved. Tethy’s agreed a farm out deal with Total and CNOC back in Dec 2012 but are still awaiting final approvals from the government. TPL management suggested that this may come at the end of April but could take longer.

Once approved – TPL will gain a lump sum payment of circa $60mln which they are going to use to drill more wells across their Kaza licence blocks.

The news below will certainly get the industry buzzing around Tajikistan and TPL look set to benefit greatly from the partnership signed with Total and CNOC.

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Gazprom drills deepest well in Central Asia

Tajik Energy Minister Sherali Gul met with Gazprom chief Alexei Miller earlier to discuss progress on well

Tuesday, April 16, 2013 - Russian oil and gas giant Gazprom has drilled its deepest well in Central Asia in Tajikistan’s Sarikamysh deposit, the energy firm said in a statement on Tuesday.

Gazprom drilled for 6300 meters (20,669 feet) at the Shakhrinav-1P well, located in the south of the mountainous Central Asian state.

Previously, the deepest any energy firm had drilled in Central Asia had been at a well located in the Fergana Valley in eastern Uzbekistan at 20,052 feet.

The deepest well that had previously been drilled in Tajikistan had gone as deep as 20,016 feet.

The findings of this well are positive, the head of Gazprom International said.

“The geological information obtained in the course of drilling the Shakhrinav well is of great interest,” Igor Shatalov said.

“It will assess the prospect’s unsealed deposits and receive parameter data that could form the basis for further study of similar objects, as in Tajikistan and beyond.”

Drilling at the well entered its final stage in late January 2013. Drilling began at the well in December 2010.

Gazprom International reached an agreement with the Tajik government to explore the area in 2008.

Projected gas reserves at Sarikamysh are estimated to hold 2 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas and 18 billion cubic meters of oil.

http://www.universalnewswires.com/centralasia/viewstory.aspx?id=13985

2013 Hotlist Results – Week 15

Week 15 of 2013

With Earnings season now in full swing the markets are back to gauging individual company performances. Thus far – there’s nothing to like or dislike. It’s like no-mans land out there. There’s no major bull story and no major bear story no matter how hard the markets try and spin it. But QE3 is still pumping cash out there and it’s gotta go somewhere.

Which perhaps explains why equities are still strong across the major indices and it comes as no surprise to see Goldman Sachs launched a large attack on gold prices in what looks like an effort to generate some of that much needed volatility.

Commodities continue to underperform and are looking like the sector that no one wants to touch. This has been ongoing now for close to 3 years and discounts to fair value are so large that some booked reserves are being priced at just $2pb on some companies. Bonkers but then it’s a bonkers market. Fundamentals went out the window after Lehmans bang and was replaced by something that really ought to have a Ladbrokes or William Hill brand on it.

I remember in 2010, Goldman Sachs announced a large initiation of small cap commodity stocks circa September. Previously – the stocks had been run down after a decent 2009 recovery – albeit from heavily oversold prices. The growth rate on many small caps from sept to circa Jan 2011 was close to 50% on average. Quite a move. Then the woes of 2011 kicked in and gains were eradicated. Goldman’s reduce notes were also missing in action and still are. With the recent falls in the small caps – it might not be too long before GS fancy another pump but probably not just yet – they have some gold to play with for now. But one thing is sure – small caps need someone to champion them as interest is faltering and Osborne’s stamp duty freebie does not kick in for another 12 months.

Meanwhile – on another planet, the BIG caps performed with verve. Hitting new highs and making history along the way. You sometimes have to pinch yourself when seeing the DOW a snip away from 15k.

The Dow closed week 15 up exactly 300pts at 14865. The FTSE 100 jumped 134pts to a close the week at 6384.

A virtual portfolio has been set up using the 2012 final trading day close figures as a starting point and £1000 has been invested in each stock. This does not include buying fees or stamp duty and is purely intended to be used as a benchmark or summary for each week. One newspaper top ten picks for 2013 has been included to help monitor/compare against. A pi ‘polled’ top picks list (from LSE bulletin boards) has been included this year.

Week 15 stock picks summary:

Much of the same for the stock picks – small caps / commodities underperforming and blue chips partying like it’s xmas. The more ‘risk off’ equity picks such as the Independent and Sharehub’s B-list continue to grow with the market on the up days while the small caps are falling on blue days and with added pace on the red days.

One of the big missing catalysts for the small cap commodities is a ‘transformational’ discovery like that seen a few years back via Rockhopper, Xcite Energy and Gulf Keystone to name a few. The sector has been dominated by dusters over the last year as finding the black stuff becomes harder and harder.

Trap Oil came up short with Scotney well which has ended their high impact exploration for 2013. It’s not over for them by any means as production underpins their core business. Farm out deals in the future should set up 2014 for the next exploration phase.

Providence Resources and % interest partners in ENI, Repsol and Exxon are set to spud the Dunquin well in the next few days subject to weather and ops set up delays. It’s a massive ‘transformational’ opportunity and many irish eys will be on this drill. Boy oh boy do the irish government need this drill to bring home the bacon. It would certainly boost the entire region and the tax coffers in the future.

Still a long way to go and markets are unpredictable as ever. But the sell off’s in some sectors are certainly making some stocks look excellent value based on risk vs reward. A large discovery for the commodity sector would certainly be  a good start and one is overdue. Exxon’s/Providence Resources ‘Dunquin’ Well could be the one the sector needs most.

Current standings / Week 15 Results

1. The Independent 2013 +23.68% (weekly gain of 5.73%)
2. TheShareHub’s 2013 B-List +5.89% (weekly gain of 3.30%)
3. The LSE BB List 2013 +2.89% (weekly gain of 4.31%)
4. TheShareHub’s 2013 Hotlist -1.26% (weekly gain of 1.36%)

Click on Portfolio image to enlargeIndependent week 15 sharehub b-list week 15 LSE top picks week 15 sharehub hotlist week 15

One to watch – Providence Resources

Last week (April 5th) PVR announced a large increase in Barryroe resources after Netherland Sewell &Associates Inc. (NSAI) completed a contingent resource audit (CPR).

The total combined audited gross on block 2C recoverable resources at Barryroe amounted to a whopping 346mmboe, comprising 311mmbo and 207bc.

Providence Resources operates Barryroe with an 80% interest.

The company is seeking farm out partners and many industry players appear to be interested.

The Barryroe asset is huge and PVR have said that they do not expect to remain operator which suggests farm out deals could exceed a 40% interest. In an ideal scenario – PVR would probably be happy with retaining 37.5% in exchange for a free carry on development costs.

Time will tell how the BoD’s manage to dice up a deal but one thing is sure with a market cap at just £410mln, Barryroe clearly is not factored in quite yet. Not surprising in this market climate where 30% to 50% discounts to fair value seem to be the trend.

But with PVR, 2013 is not all about farming out deals on Barryroe. Quite the opposite. It could be a year that’s all about a different asset entirely – and that asset is called Dunquin.

PVR farm out a large slice to Exxon for a free carry on the first well. In doing so they retained a meaningful 16% stake.

Exxon are not the only major involved in this well. Other players include Repsol and Eni.

Hence – the Dunquin well really has attracted the big time players and it’s easy to see why. The seismics data suggests that the licence block could contain over 4 bln barrels of oil equivalent.

The rig is currently in the Irish Sea and subject to weather conditions could be in place and ready to spud this widely anticipated well late next week

With Barryroe firmly adding weight to PVR’s share price – the opportunity to exposure of a high impact exploration drill looks virtually in for free.

This might change over the coming weeks as the big super majors make progress with the drill bit.

At 645p per share – PVR looks like a stock to watch over the coming weeks and months.

The sharehub price target pre Dunquin TD is 800p. Rising as high as £21 per share if Dunquin is a success. Possibly even higher if the figures are anything near the mid to high end case scenarios.

Any success will likely add some large value price tags to the Barryroe farm out talks as PVR will be in a very strong position.

Lots of ‘ifs and butts’ but that’s exploration for you.

Usual risk assessment rules apply.

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